In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). The divisions were everywhere. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. 108,000 people. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. Trump won 18 of the 19. PDF An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. Team up with others in your region, and help out by Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. What Can We Learn from Bellwether Counties in Swing States? Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. All Rights Reserved. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. But it's also not unprecedented. It is easy to gloss over this. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. TIP: The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. Not a bad streak. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. List of election bellwether counties in the United States But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. It gets a lot more interesting. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Click here, for more. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. University of Denver, 2. Want to dive deeper? This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Still, the state's worth watching. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. These counties could play an . These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. 10 bellwether counties that could signal where the election is headed In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). Trump County, USA - POLITICO Magazine Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Have you looked at the results of these counties? Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. So, where are the bellwether counties? BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. The Most Important Question About the 2020 Election Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. Fact check: Trump-backed Michigan congressional candidate John - CNN Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Yes, another Hillsborough! The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . Until this year. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Read about our approach to external linking. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. Lets find a coin, and flip it. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. 2016 election critical counties: Vigo, Indiana | CNN Politics [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. 11. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Voter Demographics (9). As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. It's the wrong question. Here's why. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. (i.e. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. Republicans have paid some attention. Their emotions and decision making process are real. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. (Sorry, not sorry.) Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. Their hopes are real. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. The highest percentage being 66.1%. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. Thank you for supporting our journalism. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook.
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